If you are a coffee drinker then there is good news for you. In the last few days, the international price of coffee has been falling. In such a situation, India may see a drop in coffee prices during winter which is starting in a few days. According to experts, more coffee is produced than is consumed in the entire world. Coffee prices have fallen due to excess supply. The impact of which will soon be seen in the rest of the world’s markets. However, the coffee market continues to grow in all markets of the world. According to estimates, the coffee market could reach $375.5 billion by the year 2033, which is $126 billion more than the current estimated figure. Currently the global coffee market is over $263 billion. Let us also tell you what kind of reports have surfaced regarding coffee production and prices?

The price of coffee has come down

Coffee prices have fallen worldwide in September. In fact, expectations of increased supply from Brazil and global surpluses (excess stocks) weighed on the market. However, the International Coffee Organization (ICO)’s monthly report said uncertainty over El Nino and a shortage of certified Arabica stocks have provided some support to prices, The Informist reports. The institute’s composite index average price was 262.18 cents per pound in September, down 8.7 percent from August’s 287.29 cents per pound.

By the end of August, the harvest in Brazil was almost complete, raising expectations of an abundant supply. According to the report, consultancy ‘Safras & Mercado’ said that till August 26, 97 per cent of crop harvesting has been completed in the country. Brazil’s National Supply Company (CONAB) on September 24 raised its forecast for the country’s 2026 coffee crop to 67.6 million bags. However, the ICO said rainfall during harvest affected the quality of the pulses, leading to discrepancies in the availability of different grades.

A decline in all coffee price indices

All four group indices tracked by ICO fell in September, reflecting broader weakness in the market.
Columbian milds prices have fallen 8.1% since August to average 356.15 cents a pound.
Other lighter prices fell 8.8% to 329.44 cents a pound.
While ‘Brazilian Naturals’ prices fell 9.9% to 290.19 cents per pound.
Robusta prices fell 7.3% this month to 167.49 cents a pound.
The price differential between Colombian mills and ‘other mills’ rose 2.1% month-on-month to 26.71 cents a pound in September.
Meanwhile, reports showed that the arbitrage (difference in prices) between the London and New York futures markets fell by 13.2% to 126.40 cents per pound.

Global coffee exports rose 14.6% in August

Global green coffee bean exports rose 15.6% year-on-year to 10.94 million bags in August from 9.46 million bags a year earlier.
Exports of all coffee groups increased except for Colombian mills. Robusta shipments rose 22.4% from a year earlier to 4.36 million bags, while Brazilian natural bag exports rose 21.3% to 3.57 million bags.
Colombian milds exports fell 5.6% year-on-year to 1.09 million bags. Each bag weighs 60 kg.
Including all forms of coffee, global exports rose 14.6% year-on-year to 12.55 million bags in August.
August saw a mixed situation in coffee exports across sectors. Asia-Oceania and South America recorded tremendous growth.
Shipments from Asia and Oceania rose 23.1% year-on-year to 4.03 million bags. South American exports rose 20.2% to 5.98 million bags.
In contrast, exports from Africa fell 1.8% to 1.74 million bags. Shipments from the Caribbean, Mexico and Central America fell 14.3% to 7,90,000 bags.

A surplus is expected in the global coffee market

ICO expects global coffee production to grow 4.4% to 183.6 million bags in the 2025-26 coffee year (which runs from October to September). At the same time, global consumption is projected to decline 0.8% to 180.6 million bags. Based on these projections, the organization expects a global coffee surplus of 3 million bags in the 2025-26 coffee year. Earlier, the market had recorded deficit for four consecutive years.

How big is the global coffee market?

According to a report by Grand View Research, the global coffee market size was $249.3 billion in 2025 and is expected to grow from $263.5 billion in 2026 to $375.5 billion in 2033, with a CAGR of 5.2% between 2026 and 2033, with this market dominating the top market. 32.5% in 2025. Coffee is the most consumed beverage worldwide and its popularity continues to grow, especially in emerging markets such as Asia-Pacific.