According to Kyungoon Kim, head of South Asia at the Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP), India could be on its way to its longest stretch of economic growth above 7 percent for the first time in decades. In a series of posts on ‘X’ (formerly Twitter), the economist pointed out how the Indian economy has maintained strong growth rates since the COVID-19 pandemic, and now international institutions are also raising their growth projections for the next two fiscal years.

Kim’s analysis comes at a time when the International Monetary Fund (IMF), World Bank and Asian Development Bank (ADB) have projected a growth rate of around 7 percent or more for India. According to the Economist, India has registered growth of more than 7 percent for five consecutive calendar years, equaling the performance between 2003 and 2007. If the latest estimates prove correct, the country may break that old record as well.

Almost all major forecasters, including the IMF, ADB and the World Bank, have recently raised their growth forecasts for India to above 7% for this year and next. Remarkable in itself – even more so when viewed against India’s recent performance. (1/n)

— Kyunghoon Kim (@Kyunghoon_Kim_) October 16, 2026

How can a 20-year-old record be broken?

According to data shared by Kim, India’s economy shrank by 5.8 percent during the pandemic in 2020, but made a strong comeback of 9.7 percent in 2021. In the four years that followed, the economy grew at more than 7 percent per year.

Kim wrote ‘

This comparison is very important. The period 2003–2007 was the strongest period of sustained economic expansion for India, when the country attracted the attention of international investors.

India’s growth rate is close to a post-pandemic high

Kim cited another statistic that helps put India’s recent performance in context. According to him, India’s average annual growth rate between 2021 and 2025 was 7.83 percent, compared to 7.89 percent during 2003-2007. Thus, this recent five-year period has become the second strongest period in history after the 1960s.

Kim wrote that maintaining this kind of momentum over several years is truly remarkable. These figures show that India’s recent economic expansion has far outstripped the immediate post-pandemic recovery.

IMF, World Bank and ADB raised India’s projections

Kim mentioned in his thread how major international organizations have become more positive than ever about India’s economic performance. Recently the IMF has raised India’s growth rate forecast for 2026-27 from 6.4 per cent to 7 per cent. According to their October ‘World Economic Outlook’ report, they too expect 7 percent growth in 2027-28.

Kim wrote that many economists — including myself — have repeatedly revised their estimates as quarterly GDP numbers come in. Their charts show that the World Bank, IMF and ADB have raised their estimates, with the most recent estimates being 7 percent or higher. The reforms are important amid concerns about high global energy prices, geopolitical tensions and slowing economic growth in many major economies.

What does India’s 7 percent growth rate mean?

Kim said India’s economy is much bigger now than it was during the previous high growth period. According to the data they shared, India’s GDP in 2007 was just over $1 trillion. Today, it is approaching $4 trillion. This means that a growth rate of 7 percent today means a much larger increase in economic output than it would have meant nearly two decades ago. Therefore, the same growth rate of 7 percent now represents a much larger expansion, Kim explained. They expect India to become the world’s third largest economy around 2030, although such a ranking depends on exchange rates, inflation and the performance of other countries.

The focus should be on India’s performance

A sustained growth rate of over 7 percent would be a major achievement for an economy with a population of around 140 crores. However, the headline growth rate of GDP does not automatically mean that there has been a corresponding improvement in household income, employment opportunities or living standards. The pace of job creation, private investment and income growth – will be important metrics to gauge the extent to which these economic benefits are reaching Indian households. Kim acknowledged the challenges, but argued that India’s performance should be recognized more internationally. He wrote that many challenges still exist, but this economic performance of a country of 1.4 billion people should be celebrated. He ended his talk on a positive note and hoped that future quarterly GDP data would give economists an opportunity to further revise their forecasts (upwards).