Even more than the election in Israel, the debate is about who will be the next prime minister after the election. In last month’s election, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s coalition won just 53 seats in the 120-member parliament, compared to a total of 67 for his opposition parties. Which is more than the majority. If we look at the numbers, Netanyahu will have to step down because he does not have a majority of 61 seats. But this data is not clear. Such an equation is forming in Israel, raising hopes that Netanyahu could become PM.
The opposition camp led by former army chief Gadi Eisenkot has also secured the support of 67 MPs before the President to form the government. However, it is not certain that Netanyahu’s power will end. The reason is that not all parties supporting Eisencott are ready to form a government with him. There are differences among the opposition parties, especially over alliances with Arab parties.
How can Netanyahu form a government?
1. Division into opposition
A majority in Israel’s 120-member parliament requires the support of 61 MPs. Netanyahu’s coalition won 53 seats in the election, while the opposition coalition led by Gadi Usenkot won 48 seats. Arab parties have 19 seats. With the support of these parties, 67 MPs fall in Eisenkot’s favour. However, the opposition parties are not unanimous in supporting the Arab parties. If they do not agree on this issue, it may be difficult for Eisenkot to form a government. Netanyahu may benefit from this.
2. Support of minor parties
Netanyahu’s coalition has 53 seats, 8 seats short of a majority. In such a situation he has to get the support of some MPs from the opposition camp or smaller parties. His old ally, the ultra-Orthodox party United Torah Jewry (UTJ), has 7 seats. This time the party did not make any recommendations in support of Netanyahu. He has clashed with the Netanyahu government over the exemption of religious students from military service. If Netanyahu succeeds in bringing the party back with him, he will need the support of just one more MP for a majority.
3. Another chance to form a government
Israeli President Isaac Herzog may first give Eisenkot a chance to form a government. For this they will get 28 days time and if required, additional time of 14 days can be given. If Eisenkot fails to secure a majority during this period, the President can give another MP a chance to form the government. In this situation, Netanyahu can also become a contender. That means Eisencott’s failure could pave the way for Netanyahu to form a government.
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4. Government of National Unity
If Netanyahu and Uzenkot come to an agreement, the two camps could form a national unity government together. In this, the formula of sharing the post of Prime Minister i.e. rotation can be adopted. Under this one leader will be the Prime Minister for a fixed period and after that another leader will take over this responsibility. However, this path is not easy. Uzenkot has already rejected proposals to form a government led by Netanyahu. In such a situation both the leaders have to change their old attitude.
5. Re-election
If all efforts to form a government fail, Israel may need to hold another election. This entire process may take several stages of effort. According to the US Congressional Research Service (CRS), a second and then a third MP may also get a chance to form a government after the first attempt fails. If the majority is not formed even after this, the parliament can be dissolved and the way for new elections may be paved. Until then, Netanyahu’s current government will continue to function as a caretaker government and he will remain prime minister.
