The eyes of the whole world are on the results of the general elections held in Israel. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s credibility is at stake in this election. Meanwhile, exit polls have come in, worrying Netanyahu. Exit polls by three major media organizations show the opposition coalition led by former army chief Gadi Eisenkot getting more seats than the ruling coalition.

There are rarely clear winners in Israeli elections. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud party emerged as the largest party, according to exit polls, but projections from the three major broadcasters showed the opposition coalition led by former army chief Geddy Eisenkot winning more seats than the ruling coalition.

Netanyahu’s coalition hopes to get 50 seats

According to exit polls by Channel 13, Channel 12 and public broadcaster Kan, Netanyahu’s coalition could win 50 seats in the 120-member parliament (Knesset), short of the 61 seats needed for a majority. The opposition coalition is expected to get 52-53 seats, while the Arab parties could get 17-18 seats.

77.7 percent voters voted

According to the Central Election Committee, 77.7 percent of voters cast their ballots. This is a 7.1 percent increase from 2022 and the highest turnout since 1999.

A separate exit poll by i24NEWS shows Netanyahu’s camp in slightly better shape. According to this calculation, Netanyahu’s coalition could get 55 seats, while Eisenkot’s coalition hopes to get 49 seats. Also Arab parties can get 16 seats.

There is no clear way for either camp to form a government

Neither camp has a clear path to form a government due to differing projections, which is likely to lead to protracted talks to form a coalition. Exit polls are only estimates and may differ from the final results after the votes are counted.

According to a Channel 13 exit poll, Likud is expected to win 25 seats, while Aysenkot’s centrist ‘Yesher’ party is expected to win 23 seats. Channel 12 estimated 24 seats for Likud and 22 for Yashar, while according to ‘Kaan’ Likud could get 25 seats and Yashar 21.

An i24NEWS exit poll predicts Likud with 27 seats and Yasher with 20. This appears to strengthen Likud’s position as the largest party, although other broadcasters have different estimates of the balance between the two main groups.

Exit polls predict that Arab-led parties will do well. These parties oppose Netanyahu, but are not formally part of the main Jewish-led opposition group.

Channel 13 and Kan predict 17 seats for Arab-led parties, while Channel 12 says they could get a total of 18 seats. Channel 13 and Kan estimates that the ‘Joint List’ will get 10 seats, while Channel 12 estimates that they could get 11 seats. The Islamic ‘Ram’ party is expected to get 7 seats in all three exit polls.

The influence of Arab parties may increase

These results may increase the influence of Arab parties in post-election negotiations. Their support from outside the coalition, or abstaining during a confidence vote, could affect the opposition’s ability to form a minority government. However, both Netanyahu and Eisenkot have ruled out forming formal partnerships with Arab-led parties.

Channel 13 and Cannes exit polls have Naftali Bennett’s opposition coalition ‘ByChad’ expected to win 14 seats, while Channel 12 is projected to win 12 seats. The left-wing ‘Democrats’ party led by Yair Golan is expected to win 9 seats in the Channel 12 and Channel 13 polls and 10 seats in Kan’s estimates.

Netanyahu’s group is unlikely to win a majority

Three broadcasters also estimated that Netanyahu’s group was unlikely to win a majority. According to his estimates, the right-wing and radical religious parties supporting Netanyahu, together with the Likud party, could win a total of 50 seats. Some Israeli analysts say exit poll data makes it difficult for Netanyahu to muster a majority to form a government soon after the election.

What will Netanyahu do?

Instead of trying unsuccessfully to form a government, Netanyahu could give the opposition a chance to form a coalition and wait for it to fall apart due to internal differences. This may pave the way for another election. Such a result is no guarantee of his return to power, but could give him another chance to regain support.

A ‘government of national unity’ between Netanyahu and Eysenkot is also unlikely, as relations between the two leaders are strained and Eisenkot has already said he will not form a coalition with Netanyahu. Although this option has been discussed amid uncertain results, disagreements over leadership and the direction of the government seem difficult to reach an agreement.

‘Netanyahu government ousted from power’

Eisenkot, whose Yashar Party is expected to lead the opposition bloc, claimed victory after polls closed. “The people have given their verdict, they have ousted the Netanyahu government from power,” he said in a post on Sunday, adding that his party, along with its allies, would try to resolve differences and form a government.

Netanyahu’s political ally Gideon Saar warned that it would be premature to treat the opposition’s lead as a decisive victory. “It’s too early to celebrate the protests,” he said in a post on X, adding that Likud was “the biggest party in Israel.”

The official results will be declared on November 4

The Central Election Commission has started the counting of votes and will continue to declare the results as the process progresses. Final counting is expected to be completed by October 30, while the official results will be announced on November 4. Under Israel’s proportional representation system, voters choose a list of parties. Just because a party gets the most seats does not automatically entitle it to form the government.

After the official results are in, President Isaac Herzog will consult with political groups and nominate the MPs they think can form a government. The nominee has 42 days to form a coalition with the support of at least 61 MPs.

If a candidate is not successful, another MP may be given a chance to form the government. If a majority is not achieved, Israel may eventually have to hold re-elections. In the meantime, the current government will continue to act as a ‘caretaker’.