Consumer durables products market in India to grow by 2030 to Rs. 3 to 3.25 lakh crores. According to a joint report by the Boston Consulting Group (BCG) and industry body Confederation of Indian Industry (CII), this will result in a domestic manufacturing materials investment of Rs. An additional valuation opportunity of Rs 40,000-50,000 crore will arise.

The report said that India will be among the world’s fastest growing markets for consumer durables products over the next five years. The factors behind this would be penetration of these products in households, increase in number of single families, increase in income, easy funding, wide distribution network and growing demand for premium products.

According to the report, China, the world’s largest market, is expected to grow by one to two percent annually through 2030. At the same time, annual growth in the US is estimated at three percent and in Japan at one-three percent. The report states that India will be the fastest growing market in the major consumer durables product market.

It is expected to grow at a rate of 8-10 percent annually to reach 30-35 billion dollars by 2030. Room air conditioners (RAC) will play a major role in the growth of this market. However, the report warns that if domestic production capacity for components and materials is not increased, a large part of this opportunity will be filled by imports.

Product differentiation at the local level

In the consumer durables category, ‘bill of materials’ (a list of parts and materials used in making a product) is currently between 25 per cent and 70 per cent produced locally. According to the report, domestic production is low in making televisions and air-conditioners, while the level is high in the case of refrigerators and washing machines. It is expected to increase to 30-80 percent by 2030. The ability to produce parts and materials locally will improve.

The report identified TV display panels, room air-conditioner compressors, refrigerator insulation and washing-machine motors as key areas where manufacturing gaps persisted at the local level. The report states that increased capacity to manufacture parts and materials locally is expected to increase domestic production by 30-80 percent by 2030.

In areas where the know-how or technology is held by only a few global suppliers, technology partnerships and joint ventures will be required, while cluster-based manufacturing can help overcome large-scale production and cost challenges.

India’s exports are limited

It is expected that global consumer durables exports will reach US $900-950 billion by 2030. According to the report, India’s share in global trade is less than 1 percent. India’s exports are growing, but are mainly limited to neighboring markets and regions such as the SAARC countries and the UAE. The country’s presence in major global import markets is limited.

The report said India suffers in terms of material costs compared to major exporters. This is due to large-scale manufacturing, backward integration, lack of technology and policy support, as well as limited facilities for testing, certification and compliance infrastructure also play a major role in this.

The report cites the example of Thailand, which has a well-integrated export ecosystem. The country’s share of global air-conditioner exports is expected to increase from 16 percent in 2010 to 22 percent in 2025, making it the world’s second largest air-conditioner exporter.

Need to spend more on research

According to the report, India’s top listed consumer durables companies spend less than 1 percent of their revenue on research and development, while similar companies worldwide spend 1-4 percent.

Because of this, the sector’s ability to move beyond large-scale production to becoming a technology leader is limited. Closing this gap requires support that focuses on innovation rather than just capacity building, the report says.

The report also states that Indian business leaders have higher expectations about the benefits of artificial intelligence than their peers around the world. However, workforce readiness is still limited.

Generative AI and agentic AI can improve efficiency in manufacturing, supply chain, product development and customer service. According to the report, this technology can help Indian companies increase competitiveness and increase exports.