These stocks have fallen 60 percent from last Diwali to this Diwali, will they shine now?

It has been a tough year for the Indian stock market. During this period, the market rose several times, but each time the volatility and sell-off shocked investors’ expectations. Global tensions, rising crude oil prices, a strong US dollar and continued selling by foreign investors continue to pressure the market.

According to data till October 23, 2026, from last Diwali to this Diwali, the Nifty 50 has fallen by 10.3%. At the same time, the Nifty 500 also fell by 7.8%. Midcap and smallcap shares also saw decline. Nifty Midcap 100 fell 4.5% and Nifty Smallcap 250 fell 3.7%.

Shares of many major companies fell sharply

Investors have also suffered losses in stocks of large companies this year. Shares of 83 large cap companies have declined since last Diwali. Some of these shares have fallen as much as 60%. Companies like Swiggy, Tata Motors, HDFC Bank, Infosys, ITC, Vedanta, Tata Consumer Products and Jio Financial Services are included in this list.

On the other hand, the number of big companies showing bullishness in the market was very less. Compared to last Diwali, only 43 large cap stocks managed to register gains. These include BHEL, Hitachi Energy, SAMIL, Titan, Shriram Finance, Hindalco and Adani Power. Shares of these companies have increased by a maximum of 70%. In such a situation, the biggest question before investors is whether the stocks of large companies can perform well again in the coming year?

Is it time for a comeback for large-cap stocks?

Market experts are of the view that after the decline of the past one year, the prices of many major stocks have now recovered to attractive levels. The shares of some companies have fallen more than the actual state of their business. In such a situation, there may be an opportunity for long-term investors. The valuation of Nifty has also decreased as compared to earlier. Currently, the Nifty is trading at 16.4 times its estimated earnings for the next one year. Its long-term average is 18.4 times. It means that the market valuation has fallen below its old average.

However, continued selling by foreign investors is still a major concern for the market. Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) are continuously selling shares of Indian companies. Because of this, there is a special pressure on the shares of big companies. In the September quarter, foreign investors’ stake in at least 53 such companies fell, with a market value of Rs. 1 lakh crore or more. Foreign investors’ stake in HDFC Bank fell by 2.43 percent. The bank’s shares have fallen nearly 30% this year. Foreign shareholding in ITC declined by 1.01 per cent and Mahindra & Mahindra by 1.55 percentage points.

The share of foreign investors in the country’s largest company Reliance Industries has also decreased by 0.52 percent. The company’s shares are down about 24.2% this year. Companies like TCS, Bharti Airtel, Maruti Suzuki, Hindustan Unilever and HDFC Life Insurance also saw a drop in foreign investors’ share and share prices.

What will the stock market look like in the future?

Experts believe that the fall in the Indian stock market may provide an opportunity to invest in some good stocks. However, the global situation is still uncertain and it may take time for investors’ confidence to return. India’s economy is continuously supported by domestic demand, spending on services, infrastructure, availability of credit and investment by private companies.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in its October 2026 monetary policy review has raised the country’s real GDP growth estimate to 7.1% for the financial year 2026-27. This shows that the Indian economy is strong despite the global challenges. However, crude oil inflation and a weak monsoon could spell trouble for the economy. This threatens to push up inflation, reduce rural demand and put pressure on corporate profits. The future direction of the stock market will largely depend on crude oil prices, global inflation, interest rates, foreign investment and quarterly results of companies. Therefore, it is not right to expect continuous growth in the market.