Chinese President Xi Jinping has reached America. The entire world is watching his meeting with US President Donald Trump. But ahead of a face-to-face meeting with Trump, Xi Jinping has delivered a message that has intensified debate over the current picture and future direction of US-China relations. Xi referred to the nearly 2,500-year-old concept of the ‘Thucydides Trap’. The question is, will the world’s two biggest powers be able to prevent their strategic competition from turning into conflict?

Xi’s message is important amid the growing strategic competition between the US and China as it not only addresses existing tensions, but also emphasizes the need for new types of ‘major-power relations’.

What is the concept of ‘Thucydides Trap’?

Thucydides’ trap is a situation in international relations when competition between an emerging power and an existing dominant power increases, leading to a risk of conflict. Its reference is related to the ancient Greek historian Thucydides. He notes the rise of Athens and the fear it created in Sparta as a backdrop to the Peloponnesian War. In modern international relations, the concept was popularized by Harvard political scientist Graham Ellison.

What did Shi finally say?

During his meeting with Donald Trump in Beijing in May 2026, Xi Jinping questioned whether China and the US could move beyond the Thucydides trap and create a new paradigm of relations between major powers.

This is not just a reference to history. China has long used the language of a ‘new model of major country relations’ for relations with the US. In Chinese Foreign Ministry documents, the key elements of this model are described as non-confrontation, non-conflict, mutual respect and win-win cooperation.

Getting out of the ‘trap’ is not easy

While talks between Beijing and Washington on the one hand are underway, deep differences remain on issues like Taiwan, trade, technology, strategic minerals and regional security, on the other.

Even during the Trump-Xi meeting in May, Xi called Taiwan a very sensitive issue and said mishandling it could lead to conflict between the two countries.

This is why it is too early to see moving beyond the Thucydides trap as a permanent strategic détente or a decisive shift in US-China relations. Currently, it appears as a political language and a strategic aspiration to prevent competition between the two powers from turning into conflict.

This debate is also important for India

Any major change in US-China relations could affect the Indo-Pacific, global supply chains, semiconductor ecosystem, critical minerals and strategic partnerships.

If Washington and Beijing develop new structures to manage competition between themselves, India will also have to take into account the changing strategic environment. At the same time, if hostilities between the two countries continue, India’s strategic autonomy and policy of engagement with both powers on various issues will be important.

That is, the real test of overcoming the ‘Thucydides Trap’ will be seen not in the statements, but in the behavior of the US and China on controversial issues such as Taiwan, technology, trade and the Indo-Pacific.

Xi’s message is that Sino-US rivalry need not be viewed as inevitable conflict. But despite referencing the history, the rivalry between the two countries runs deep in the current geopolitical reality. Therefore, talk of ‘getting out of the trap’ is currently a strategic proposition, not an established reality.