Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s power is at stake in Israel’s October 27 general election. Voting will be held for all 120 seats in the country’s parliament, the Knesset. The number of seats a party or coalition gets in an election will determine who will form the next government. The real challenge will be getting the support of the 61 MPs. A recent survey projected Netanyahu’s religious-nationalist coalition with 50 seats and the opposition coalition with 52. Arab parties are projected to get around 13 seats, which could also make the government formation equation important. These are survey estimates, not election results.

Voters in Israel vote for a party rather than a single candidate. The distribution of seats is in proportion to the votes received by the parties. A party needs to get at least 3.25% of the votes to get a seat in Parliament. After the election, coalition talks are held to form the government. In such a situation, getting maximum number of seats in the elections is also not a guarantee to form the government.

8 Possible Outcomes of Government Formation

1. Netanyahu can form a government again

Netanyahu’s Likud party may try to form a government despite trailing in the polls. For this he will have to get the support of his old allies and other parties. These include Itamar Ben-Gavir’s Otzma Yehudit, Bezalel Smotrich’s Religious Zionism Party, and the ultra-Orthodox parties Shas and United Torah Judaism. If these parties get the necessary support together, Netanyahu can once again become prime minister.

2. Opposition coalition can form government

The four main parties in opposition to Netanyahu have agreed to run together and try to form a government. These include former army chief Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar Party, Yair Golan’s Democrats, Avigdor Lieberman’s Yisrael Beitenu and the coalition led by Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid. The opposition will have to secure the support of additional MPs for a majority. Eisenkot is seen as a possible prime ministerial candidate, although the opposition has not formally decided on a coalition government leader.

3. Alliance with Arab Party Ram

The Ram Party representing the Arab citizens of Israel can play an important role in forming the government. Its leader Mansoor Abbas has not ruled out the possibility of supporting the opposition coalition. His priorities include curbing rising violent crime in Arab communities and changing discriminatory housing policies. But many opposition leaders have opposed formal coalitions with Arab parties. So, despite the potential for support, there are political hurdles in the way.

4. Minority government without majority

If the coalition is unable to secure 61 seats, it may try to form a government with outside support from other parties present in parliament. In this system allies can support the government on important occasions like confidence vote without being part of it. The Joint List expressed the possibility of providing such support to the anti-Netanyahu coalition. In return, it can make demands such as steps towards the creation of a Palestinian state and measures against organized crime. However, such a government could become unstable due to MPs withdrawing support or differences over policies.

5. Government of National Unity

Another option is a national unity government, in which political opposition parties can come together in times of major crisis. Netanyahu and Benny Gantz formed such a government in May 2020 after three inconclusive elections, but it fell within a year. Gantz and members of his party also joined Netanyahu’s government after the 2023 attack by Hamas. However, whether such a government will be formed this time will depend on the negotiations and policy consensus between the parties.

6. Agreement to hold office of Prime Minister on rotation

The parties may also agree to share the post of Prime Minister. In this system, two leaders become prime ministers in succession after a fixed period of time. Netanyahu and Gantz made such an agreement in 2020, but Gantz’s turn did not come due to the collapse of the government. In 2021, Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid also agreed to share the prime ministership. Lapid became acting Prime Minister in July 2022 after Bennett’s government lost its majority. This time also such a compromise is possible.

7. Another Prime Minister from the same political camp

If the coalition talks fail to reach a consensus on the name of Netanyahu or an opposition leader, the parties may consider another MP from the same political camp as prime minister. Such a leader may become more acceptable to allies and pave the way for government formation. However, this would require the consent of the parties from the respective camps. It must also be kept in mind that in Israel the Prime Minister has to get the support of the Parliament.

8. Election if unanimity not reached

Israel may once again face elections if either leader is unable to garner the necessary support. Elections were held five times in the country between 2019 and 2022, as opposing political camps failed to form a stable government. This time too, if there is no consensus on forming the government, political uncertainty may increase. Netanyahu will remain acting prime minister until a new government is sworn in.

What will be most important in forming a government?

Three things will be special in this election. Which coalition gets how many seats, which Arab parties support and whether the opposition parties are able to resolve their differences. Parties opposing Netanyahu want to remove him from power, but are at odds over forming a government with Arab parties. On the other hand, the support of Netanyahu’s old allies will also be important in the final outcome.

The process of forming a government in Israel continues even after the election. After the election, there is 28 days for talks on government formation, which can be extended by 14 days. If no government is formed during this period, the country may have to go for fresh elections. Therefore, the election results on October 27 will be the first part of the picture of power. The final picture will be determined through coalition talks.