Israel went to the polls on Tuesday, October 27, and the results have been suspended. According to exit polls, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s coalition appears stuck between 50 and 52 seats, compared to 68 seats in the last parliament. His biggest challenger, former army chief Gadi Eisenkot’s camp is also around 49 to 53 seats. 61 seats are required to form a government in the 120-seat parliament, the Knesset.

Netanyahu’s Likud party still appears to be the largest party, but neither has a majority. Voter turnout was also very high, at around 77.7 percent, the highest in the last 25 years. The final results will take a few days and then the manipulations will last for weeks. If things don’t work out, re-elections can also be held. In such a scenario, a question that must be asked in Delhi is what will happen to the friendship between India and Israel if Netanyahu does not return to office?

How close is Modi-Netanyahu’s friendship?

This question arises because Modi and Netanyahu have been the faces of this relationship for the past ten years. In 2017, Modi became the first Indian Prime Minister to visit Israel, followed by Netanyahu the following year. In February this year, Modi again visited Israel, addressed the Knesset and the two countries accorded the status of ‘Special Strategic Partnership’ to the relationship.

People remember these pictures of hugging each other saying ‘my friend’ at the airport. That’s why many people think that this relationship depends on the personal chemistry of both the leaders, but the real picture is a little bigger than this.

Will defense deals and trade be affected?

What really connects the two countries is essential. India is the largest buyer of Israeli arms. SIPRI data shows that India bought about 34 percent of the weapons sold by Israel between 2020 and 2024. Barak Missile System, Heron Drone, Masala Bomb, all these have become daily weapon of Indian Army. Major Israeli defense companies have also set up their units and partnerships in India.

Trade between the two countries is also increasing. By 2025, there will be about $5 billion in trade between the two, including goods, services and diamonds. An investment agreement was signed last year and a free trade agreement is now being negotiated. No matter who forms the government in Israel, it will not turn to its biggest customer. India also needs technology that not every country is willing to provide, meaning there is less risk of stalling deals.

How do Netanyahu’s opponents view India?

Old experience comes in handy here. In 2021-22, Netanyahu had been out of power for about a year and a half and the government of Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid was in place. Even during that period the relationship did not cool down. The meeting between Bennett and Modi in Glasgow was much discussed. The I2U2 group of India, Israel, USA and UAE was formed at the same time. In June 2022, then Defense Minister Benny Gantz came to Delhi and the two countries adopted a new vision document on defense cooperation. The Adani Group also won the tender for Haifa Port when Lapid was Prime Minister.

Interestingly, this time Bennett and Lapid are in the Icecott camp. Eisenkot is a former army chief himself and knows Israel’s defense industry inside out. In such a situation, there is little hope that they will weaken defense ties with India.

What will change then?

The first thing that will make a difference is the style. The warmth and directness of Modi-Netanyahu may not be immediately apparent. It will take some time to establish trust with the new Prime Minister.

Another case is Gaza and Palestine. If the stance of the new government softens even a little, it may become easier for India to maintain a balance between the Arab countries and Israel. Questions were also raised within the country on Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit in February. However, Israeli voters have leaned more to the right in the past few years, so it is unwise to expect major changes.

The third is the Indo-Middle Eastern Europe Corridor or IMEC, which is largely dependent on the relationship between Israel and Saudi Arabia. India will also benefit if the new government improves relations with Arab countries.

The biggest fear is uncertainty. Netanyahu will remain acting prime minister until a new government is formed. Major decisions such as free trade agreements could be postponed if coalition building takes months or re-elections are held.

In the end, the simple fact is that India-Israel relations are no longer dependent on a single leader. Full diplomatic relations were established in 1992, and since then governments from both parties have come and gone, but relations have only grown. If Netanyahu loses, the images of the embrace may fade, but partnerships involving missiles, drones, agriculture and technology will continue. Yes, Delhi will definitely have to renew ties with new faces.

Report/Instant Value