The United States of America (USA) midterm elections will determine the future of President Donald Trump and the Republican Party. Elections for all 435 seats in the US Congress and 35 seats in the Senate are scheduled for November 3. If the republican party gets the majority then all will praise Trump otherwise the coming days will be full of trouble for Trump. Although this mid-term election will not be a hindrance to Donald Trump’s tenure, his arbitrariness will definitely be curbed.

Indians settled in America are both happy and depressed. Happy because Trump’s weakening will allow him to call his parents, siblings to America. And they’re sad because by giving the slogan of Americans First, Donald Trump has instilled in Americans the feeling that come hardliners or liberals, the policies will more or less stay the same.

Obama’s sharp criticism of Trump

But most Indians believe that even if Trump is opposed, the chances of the Democrats coming to power are very slim. Former President and Democrat leader Barack Obama has come out in open opposition to current President Donald Trump. They are openly calling Trump rude and illiterate. But no matter what Barack Obama says, everyone knows he’s outlived his usefulness. His opposition is not having much impact because there is no leader left in the Democratic Party who can stand up to Trump. Barack Obama can no longer be president, so his protest is symbolic. But the real cause for concern is that even Donald Trump’s supporters are happy with his policies. So, they may not go to vote and this is the reason for Trump’s concern.

Nice motto of MAGA

According to Boston scientist Dr. Mahendra Singh, there is currently no threat from Trump’s policies (especially America First and MAGA) in America. Because the American people feel that immigrants pose a great threat to the white population of America. Since Americans are largely indifferent to higher education. After schooling, they take up blue collar jobs to earn money. They lack generosity and political intelligence. As a result they become blind nationalists. Trump’s MAGA (Make America Great Again) sounds very pleasant in such a situation, but with the way oil prices have soared due to the Iran war, this class is no longer the blind devotee of Trump it used to be. They are not opposing Trump but have become silent.

Despite being rich, the average American is in trouble

Unbridled inflation and rising petrol prices have added up. And all this is happening because of the tension between Iran and Israel and the promotion of America by Trump. If the Strait of Hormuz is closed, oil will not come either. After a long time, the price of crude oil has reached 117 dollars. These US mid-term elections have become very important, says Charan Singh, a prominent Indian-origin entrepreneur in New Jersey. There are many reasons for this. President Trump was returned by a large margin just two years ago. But the current state of geopolitics in the world, the tariffs imposed by Trump, the Iran war and rising inflation in the US are troubling the public. Although the economy and unemployment situation of USA is better than other countries, there is a huge pressure on the pocket of common people.

Do or die situation

The truth is that this election has become do-or-die for President Trump and his party. They don’t want to give up power. A third impeachment against President Trump is certain if the Democratic Party wins a majority in the Senate and Congress. On the other hand, the capitalist agenda will go backwards. For this, big capitalists like Elon Musk are spending money like water. Democrats are pushing a socialist agenda. They know that inflation and Trump’s unpopularity can easily bring them to power to achieve the ultraleft agenda. Former President Obama’s activism could certainly provide energy and electoral support to Democrats, but it’s too early to tell whether his campaign alone will hurt Republicans. Ultimately, voters will decide based on their day-to-day issues, economy, inflation, employment and government performance.

Lula’s effect is very mild

Lula’s victory in Brazil is also an important political signal. This shows that voters in different countries make different choices based on their local issues and leadership. Its impact on America may be primarily in terms of trade, tariffs, relations with China, and American influence in Latin America. Trump was there supporting Bolsonaro, a right-wing leader. One thing to keep in mind is that democracy does not run on a person but on its principles and rules. Atul Arora also believes the same. He says Obama’s latest campaign is likely to hurt Republicans in the midterms, but he won’t make the decision alone. However, Congressional oversight may limit Trump’s policies to some extent. A Lula victory could further strain US-Brazilian relations.

There will be a shock due to inflation

Atul Arora says the chances of Barack Obama campaigning in favor of the Democratic Party and undermining the Republican Party are slim. Recently on October 24 and 25, Barack Obama held rallies in Ohio and Michigan. He accused the Trump administration of lawlessness, brutality, corruption, and incompetence, called the Iran war unnecessary, and supported Democratic candidates (such as Abdul al-Sayed of Michigan’s Senate and Sherard Brown of Ohio). Obama is effective in strengthening his voter base and attracting swing voters. But the mid-term outcome will depend mainly on the economy, the impact of the Iran war and Trump’s popularity. The Obama campaign is doing some good, but the Republicans will be hit by exactly the same factors.

Lack of leadership among Democrats

In fact, the Clinton, Obama and Biden families are not particularly well-liked in the Democratic establishment. The Democratic Party has to bring new thinking and new leadership which is centrist. Which is not visible now. But even so, if the mid-term polls go against the Republicans, President Donald Trump’s unbridled policy will certainly be reined in. Although this will be small. In Trump’s second term (from 2025), since the Republican Party has a majority in Congress, all of his policies, be it tariffs, immigration bans or Iran-related actions, etc., all get congressional approval. But if Republicans weaken in the midterms, Trump’s policies will certainly be criticized. Some may even get banned.

Threat of veto

Perhaps that’s why President Donald Trump is saying America First could be vetoed if Democrats win. Trump will have veto power, executive orders and broad powers in foreign policy/military matters. Major changes will be difficult due to filibusters and veto-overrides (2/3 majority). The powers granted to the President for war, spending, and some domestic policies may be limited, but not absolute control. Will not stop completely. In short, changes in Congress are sure to increase scrutiny and obstruction, but Trump’s core agenda will not be completely shut down. The Trump administration was supporting the Bolsonaro family (meetings, tariff push, etc.). Lula’s victory halts the wave of right-wing swing in Latin America and weakens Trump’s regional influence (a strategy similar to the Donaro doctrine).

‘Brazil is nobody’s home’

As far as communist leader Lula’s victory in Brazil is concerned, it will have no effect on the Trump administration. It is curious that the leftist Lula government has won a fourth term in a major South American country. The October 25 results boosted Lula’s stature. But Donald Trump has made it clear that he doesn’t care about Lula or Brazil. On the other hand, Lula has also said that Brazil is no one’s back ground. It is clear from this that differences on tariffs, critical minerals (rare earths) and security cooperation may widen. Yet there is no doubt that practical cooperation is possible. Brazil is a major trading partner of both the US and China. Discussions may continue on investment and some strategic issues. But there will be no further effect.